Cantabrians - Returning?

The rental market in Canterbury is recently completely different from all other markets. Most markets are moving into Private Rental surplus after Covid Impact, but Canterbury is heading towards a severe shortage. Did the overbuild in Christchurch not go far enough? Or maybe Cantabrians left for international opportunities after the earthquake and they are the first to return?

The chart below shows the level of surplus (after I have removed the impact of seasonal changes). This chart should be a straight line with only changes due to supply - demand mismatch showing, but instead most regions show a pattern that matches the migration patterns expected for tenants leaving and returning the country.

Once the country opened to NZers returning home, the rental market went into shortage (Jun-Sept) but now the market is moving into oversupply - except for Canterbury (Christchurch), where the market is still dropping away into severe shortage territory. My guesstimate is that our overseas diaspora are disproportionately Christchurch inhabitants escaping the earthquake impact, and now deciding its time to come home more than most.

Jonette 2011